Flash - the beginning of the end?

by Marc 26. November 2011 13:27

So Adobe killed Flash this month... I have to admit, I didn't see that one coming.

They didn't kill Flash of course, they are "No longer continuing development of Flash player on new mobile devices" to concentrate on HTML5 offerings. Flash will continue to be supported on the desktop.

Or will it? The thing is, between my last (somewhat outdated) post on this site and now, Apple managed to yet again change the shape of the industry with a new product offering. The iPad is not a new concept - tablet PC have been around for decades in one form or another - but by basing it on a touchscreen optimised phone OS and giving it an ecosystem, Apple turned the tablet into an object of consumer desire.

That, in turn, meant that "mobile internet" suddenly started becoming important. Tablets are not phones. They're used in the home, typically with Wifi. They have large screens. Unlike phones, web browsing on a tablet actually makes sense. Let's face it, nobody really cares if your site doesn't have the bells and whistles when viewed on a phone but on a tablet people expect the site to work.

Mobile internet matters. Unfortunately for Adobe, the late Steve Jobs was (for reasons best known to himself) never going to let Flash appear on an Apple mobile product and I see no reason that decision should change. So If I'm designing a new web site right now, am I going to exclude the iPad market by using Flash? I don't think so.

Here's the prediction - Flash has had it's reign of ubiquity and it's on the way out. It'll probably hang around for a while (it takes a long time for a technology to truly die) but we won't see it being used on any mainstream websites from now on.

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As the first post on the site says, really this is a place for me to record predictions or comments on news I see. They're mostly going to be technology related since that's the world I move in but if anything else strikes me I'll drop it in for good measure.

So who am I? Well I'm not a Futurologist (yet!). Just a working software developer with an interest in the world around me. 

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